Ismail, Isha Baizura (2023) An integration of coastal erosion mapping using statistical approach to predict shoreline changes. Doctoral thesis, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia.

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Abstract

Coastal erosion is a marine geological phenomenon that has a significant impact on the impacted regions. Globally, coastal changes are having a significant impact in certain regions. Predicting the ecological effects and magnitude of coastal changes such as erosion and population growth is essential. Some analyses indicate that by 2050, sea level rise and global climate change would impact some coastal cities. This study aims to determine the pace of change along Regency Beach, Port Dickson, and to predict shoreline change using the End Point Rate (EPR) mathematical model equation approach. Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) software was utilised to develop shoreline position predictions, which were subsequently validated using field-measured shoreline data. To identify changes in the shoreline of the study area, researcher analyzed images captured by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from 2019 to 2021 with satellite images from 1988 to 2019. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) computations were used to determine the accuracy of the data collected by the UAV. This data set was tested to fulfil the 7.95 cm RMSEx/RMSEy horizontal accuracy class of the ASPRS Positional Accuracy Standards for digital geospatial data (2014). RMSEx = 4.26 cm and RMSEy = 1.57 cm were found to be the actual positional accuracy. The maximum rate of erosion was determined to be -4.65 m/year for long-term analysis, -5.16 m/year for medium-term analysis, and -1.46 m/year for short-term analysis. Between 1988 and 2021, there was moderate to high erosion in the study area. Using the EPR mathematical model equation method, the coordinates of where the shoreline is expected to be in the years 2030, 2050, and 2100 have been calculated. GIS and UAV data from the research region can predict future shoreline changes. The study proved shoreline erosion between 1988 and 2021, and the mathematical equations are useful for future research

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