Isradi, Muhammad (2023) Markov decision process for development of highway minimum standard performance. Doctoral thesis, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia.

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Abstract

Poor road conditions can cause discomfort, endanger safety, and disrupt the smooth flow of traffic. After the road is opened, it is start influenced by traffic and environmental loading, and as time goes by, road performance will decrease. The damage that occurs is different with various types of conditions on the road surface, within the time limit of maintenance, it is very important to maintain it optimal conditions. If this situation is not addressed, maintenance costs will continue to increase to repair further damage. This study aimed to identify the value of the condition of the road pavement and the model of the remaining life of the road, referring to the minimum service standard and the development of a road damage model. Additionally, it involved the prediction of pavement conditions with the Markov Chain model and simulations for optimizing future financing in maintenance management. The data needed for research, such as information on traffic volume and its projected growth, were gathered and aggregated as the study's method. For the following stage, the International Roughness Index (IRI) was established. Road age and condition estimates can be made using traffic volume prediction algorithms and IRI values. In this study, development of a Markov chain prediction model is to obtain the pattern of road maintenance and the proportion of this condition, which was expressed in the Transition Probability Matrix (MPT) of the 2019-2029 road condition transition. The development of a predictive model with the Markov chain application resulted in a fairly good maintenance pattern, where the type of handling program continued to shift from heavy work to light work for the next 10 years. The results were 52.6% in good condition, 47.4% in moderate condition, and scenario I was more in good condition reaching 92% in steady condition at the end of the design life

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