Devesh, Sonal (2022) An econometric model for food security in the gulf cooperation council during the period 1980-2019: cointegration approach. Doctoral thesis, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia.

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Abstract

Food security remains a major concern worldwide, particularly in developing and emerging economies. The Lack of access to enough food results in hunger, malnutrition, and poor health conditions, jeopardizing the sustainable development of the nations. Countries, work hard to develop strategies and policies to compact these negative consequences of food insecurity. On the other hand, securing access to quality food has many benefits to the countries: boosting economic growth, reducing poverty, creating jobs, increasing trade opportunities, increasing global security, and stability, and improving health status. With rapid population growth and unfavorable climatic conditions coupled with deteriorating oil prices, food security remains a significant concern for the GCC countries. Maintaining it is of strategic importance for national security and social stability. The food market in the GCC is highly dependent on imports which makes it vulnerable to any import disruption. The purpose of this research was to examine the dynamics of the food imports bill for the GCC during the period 1980 to 2019, using an econometric model. The cointegration approach of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), vector error correction model (VECM), and Granger causality analysis was employed. The study found that there is a long relationship between the food imports bill and its dynamics, with an adjustable-rate of 37%, indicating that 37% of the deviations in the short run from the long-run path are corrected each year. The study confirmed that in the long run, the food imports bill was positively influenced by GDP per capita, exports, inflation, global prices of food, and regional instability, and negatively influenced by local the production index. Population growth was only a significant impact in the short run. Moreover, causality analysis demonstrated the existence of a one-directional causality running from GDP per capita, exports, inflation, global food prices, and population growth to food imports bills in the GCC in the short run. The implications of the findings were discussed and a food security framework was developed based on four pillars: government support, private sector engagement, foreign direct investment, and regional network. The integration of these pillars is important for addressing food security in the GCC from both supply and demand sides

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